We have had a very dry and warm winter thus far, with overall state average snowpack being about half of what it should be this time of year. Though we do still have time to catch up (and we have had a few good storms recently), it seems unlikely that we will end up anywhere close to a normal snow pack by spring. So what does this mean for the fishing?
The Good News:
A low snow pack, and especially a warm winter like this one, tend to give us a much better opportunity for hitting the spring Caddis Hatch on the Rio. I think the bugs should show up early this year, maybe around the first of April, and peak around April 10th. A late season cold front could push that back, so keep an eye on the weather. In all likelihood, we won’t have much of a run-off, so its possible we could have a month or more of reliable caddis fishing as we follow the bugs north up towards the state line. And though the Caddis will start to taper off, the Rio may fish well all of May and June if the Colorado irrigators take what little run-off there is before the river gets to the Canyon. After that, the Rio Grande should fish great all summer, as low flows are always better for the fishing there- thanks to the many springs in the canyon.
The Regular News:
With the San Juans also showing a low snowpack, expect run-off on the Conejos to be short lived. In theory, this will push up all the hatches by as much as 2 weeks. Instead of early to mid July being the best shot at big fish on dries, it will likely be around the third week of June that the stars align for the Conejos. Look for similar trends on the Los Pinos, Cimarron and Costilla.
The Bad News:
Without some serious late season snow, or at least some good spring rain, many of our smaller streams as well as rivers like the Chama could be too warm to fish by July. We also worry about forest fires and closures, something we are getting more and more used to unfortunately.
— Nick Streit, Taos Fly Shop
